Now for the Long Term of Future Generations.pdf

Now for the Long Term

The Report of the

Oxford Martin Commission

for Future Generations

Now for the Long Term

The Report of the

Oxford Martin Commission

for Future Generations

October 2013

Members of the Commission:

Chair: Pascal Lamy , former Director-General,

World Trade Organization

Luiz Felipe Lampreia , former Minister of

Foreign Affairs, Brazil

Peter Piot (Baron Piot), Director, London

School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; former

Executive Director, UNAIDS

Michelle Bachelet , former President of Chile;

former Executive Director, UN Women

Liu He , Minister, Ofice of the Central Leading

Group on Financial and Economic Affairs,

People’s Republic of China

Martin Rees (Lord Rees of Ludlow), former

President, The Royal Society; Fellow of Trinity

College, University of Cambridge

Lionel Barber , Editor, The Financial Times

Kishore Mahbubani , Dean and Professor in the

Practice of Public Policy, Lee Kuan Yew School

of Public Policy, National University of Singapore

Roland Berger , Chairman, Roland Berger

Strategy Consultants

Amartya Sen , Nobel Laureate and Thomas W.

Lamont University Professor, and Professor of

Economics and Philosophy, Harvard University

Ian Goldin , Director, Oxford Martin School;

Professor of Globalisation and Development,

University of Oxford (Vice-Chair)

Trevor Manuel , Minister and Chair of the

National Planning Commission, South Africa

Nicholas Stern (Lord Stern of Brentford),

President, The British Academy; IG Patel Professor

of Economics, London School of Economics

Julia Marton-Lefèvre , Director-General,

International Union for Conservation of

Nature (IUCN)

Arianna Hufington , President and Editor-in-

Chief, Hufington Post Media Group

Jean-Claude Trichet , former President,

European Central Bank

Mo Ibrahim , Chair of the Board,

Mo Ibrahim Foundation

Nandan Nilekani , Chairman, Unique Identiication

Authority of India; former CEO, Infosys

Chris Patten (Lord Patten of Barnes), Chancellor,

University of Oxford; Chairman, BBC Trust

The Commissioners are acting in their personal capacity. They were selected because of their breadth and depth of expertise, their geographical reach, and

their extensive leadership experience gathered over many years in large organisations, multilateral negotiations and complex national and global institutions.

This report represents the collective views of the Commission, and does not necessarily represent the individual opinions of any single Commissioner or

the organisations to which they are affiliated.

The Oxford Martin School Commission Secretariat was led by Natalie Day (Head of Policy), with Anushya Devendra (Communications and Policy Officer)

and Dr Travers McLeod (Policy Adviser). This report was published by the Oxford Martin School.

Abbreviations

Executive Summary

Introduction

Governing for the future

One world; many cultures, perspectives and identities

About this report

Part A: Possible Futures

Megatrends

Demographics

Mobility

Society

Geopolitics

Sustainability

Health

Technology

Challenges

Society

Resources

Health

Geopolitics

Governance

Part B: Responsible Futures

Looking Back to Look Forward

Lessons from Previous Successes

Lessons from Failure

Shaping Factors: What Makes Change so Hard?

1: Institutions

2: Time

3: Political Engagement and Public Trust

4: Growing Complexity

5: Cultural Biases

Part C: Practical Futures:

Principles and Recommendations

1: Creative Coalitions

C20-C30-C40

CyberEx

Fit Cities

2: Innovative, Open and Reinvigorated Institutions

Decades, not Days

Fit for Purpose

Open up Politics

Make the Numbers Count

Transparent Taxation

3: Revalue the Future

Focus Business on the Long Term

Discounting

Invest in People

Measure Long-term Impact

4: Invest in Younger Generations

Attack Poverty at its Source

A Future for Youth

5: Establish a Common Platform of Understanding

Build Shared Global Values

What Next?

Endnotes

Acknowledgements

Abbreviations

AIDS

Acquired Immunodeiciency

Syndrome

G20

Group of Twenty

NPCs

National Planning

Commissions

G30

Group of Thirty Consultative

Group on International

Economic and Monetary Affairs

ASEAN

Association of Southeast

Asian Nations

OECD

Organisation for Economic

Co-operation and

Development

BEPS

Base Erosion and Proit

Shifting

GATT

General Agreement on Tariffs

and Trade

OGP

Open Government

Partnership

C40

Cities Climate Leadership

Group

GAVI

Global Alliance for Vaccines

and Immunisations

R&D

Research and Development

CDOs

Collateralised Debt

Obligations

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

RGI

Resource Governance Index

HIV

Human Immunodeiciency

Virus

SARS

Severe Acute Respiratory

Syndrome

CEO

Chief Executive Oficer

CERN

European Organization for

Nuclear Research

IFPRI

International Food Policy

Research Institute

SMP

Single Market Programme

(Europe)

CFC

Chloroluorocarbon

IFRS

International Financial

Reporting Standards

Tuberculosis

CGIAR

Consultative Group for

International Agricultural

Research

TRIPS

Trade-Related Aspects of

Intellectual Property Rights

IHR

International Health

Regulations

UDHR

Universal Declaration of

Human Rights

CO 2

Carbon Dioxide

IIAG

Ibrahim Index of African

Governance

CPI

Corruption Perceptions Index

United Nations

ILO

International Labour

Organization

CSIRO

Commonwealth Scientiic

and Industrial Research

Organisation

UNDP

United Nations Development

Programme

IMF

International Monetary Fund

UNEP

United Nations Environment

Programme

DNA

Deoxyribonucleic Acid

Intellectual Property

ECOSOC

IPCC

UNESCO

Economic and Social Council

(United Nations)

Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change

United Nations Educational

Scientiic and Cultural

Organization

FAO

Food and Agricultural

Organization

IUCN

International Union for

Conservation of Nature

UNFCCC

United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate

Change

FCF

Committee for the Future

(Finland)

LPG

Liqueied Petroleum Gas

MDGs

Millennium Development

Goals

UNICEF

United Nations Children’s Fund

FCTC

Framework Convention on

Tobacco Control

WGIs

Worldwide Governance

Indicators

NCDs

Non-Communicable Diseases

FDI

Foreign Direct Investment

NGOs

Non-Governmental

Organisations

WHO

World Health Organization

FSB

Financial Stability Board

WIPO

World Intellectual Property

Organization

Group of Seven

NHS

National Health Service

(United Kingdom)

Group of Eight

WTO

World Trade Organization

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