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Joint Military Intelligence College
November 2004
GLOBAL WAR ON TERRORISM:
ANALYZING THE STRATEGIC THREAT
Discussion Paper Number Thirteen
6
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The Joint Military Intelligence College supports and encourages research
on intelligence issues that distills lessons and improves Intelligence
Community capabilities for policy-level and operational consumers
This series of Discussion Papers presents the work of faculty, students and others whose research on
intelligence issues is supported or other wise encouraged by the Joint Military Intelligence College
(JMIC) through its Center for Strategic Intelligence Resear ch. Discussion Papers are distributed to
Department of Defense schools and to the Intelligence Community, and unclassified papers are avail-
able to the public through the National Technical Information Ser vice (www.ntis.gov).
This paper is the product of research undertaken throughout Fiscal Year 2003 by a senior Research
Fellow with the College’s Center for Strategic Intelligence Research. This paper, like others in the
series, has been reviewed by senior experts from across the Intelligence Community. The comments
of one of those reviewers are included to highlight differing perspectives on the issues raised by the
author.
This publication has been approved for unrestricted distribution by the Directorate for Freedom of
Information and Security Review, Washington Headquarters Services.
Russell.Swenson@dia.mil, Editor and Director
Center for Strategic Intelligence Research
Discussion Paper Number Thirteen
GLOBAL WAR ON TERRORISM: ANALYZING THE
STRATEGIC THREAT
Joint Military
Intelligence College
WASHINGTON, DC
November 2004
The views expressed in this paper are those of the author
and do not reflect the official policy or position of the
Department of Defense or the U.S. Government
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CONTENTS
Editor’s Preface. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
v
Commentary on the paper—Max L. Gross. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
vii
America’s Challenge. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1
The Global War on Terrorism, That Isn’t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5
The Strategic Threat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9
The Road to Paradise: Jihad-Martyrdom-Paradise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
23
Jihad: The Legal Arguments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
31
Weakness Breeds Jihad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
45
Modern Jihad: Hate Wrapped in Religion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
53
The Call to Jihad—The Call for Genocide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
71
Deprogramming the Jihadists: Can It Be Done? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
79
Europe: Incubator of Jihad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
87
The U.S. Intelligence Community Response to Jihad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
103
The Operational Threat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
119
Counter-Jihad Centers of Gravity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
125
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
131
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
133
About the Author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
137
iii

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